What Time Is It (On the Doomsday Clock)?

tatomm/AdobeStock

PSYCHIATRIC VIEWS ON THE DAILY NEWS

Today, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will be updating the Doomsday Clock. Thankfully, the Doomsday Clock does not run like our everyday clocks. Otherwise, we would have already reached midnight and the “Doomsday World Cataclysm.”

If case you have not heard of it, the metaphoric Doomsday Clock was established by Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer of the movie Oppenheimer, and Eugene Rabinowitch in 1947, not long after the first atomic bombs were dropped on Japan, leading soon to their surrender. Just imagine what might have happened if Hitler and the Nazis got to nuclear weapon capability back then, something they were not too far away from.

Some of the variables influencing the projected time are the risks of nuclear war, new weapons like hypersonic missiles, biological warfare, climate instability, and most recently, artificial intelligence (AI). This year, the current major wars would presumably be a major consideration.

When it was first set in 1947, after the atomic weapon bomb use, the time picked was 7 minutes to midnight. It has gone back and forth some since then, but mainly forward, the nearest being 90 seconds in January 2023 and maintained in 2024. It is unclear if the clock has slowed down in its advance because the time was so constricted, or whether we seem to continue so far to successfully adjust and respond to the dangers. The paradox is that we probably will not live to know when it does—if ever—strike midnight. This clock has alternately been viewed as a necessary warning or a stunt.

You might think the announcement itself this and every year might be at midnight of 12:01 AM. But today it will be held in Washington DC at 10AM EST, likely to attract the widest audience in the United States for the announcement and follow-up discussion. (If you read this before 10AM EST, you can sign up to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists).

Certainly, there is added risk this year, but how much? At least right now the war in Gaza is in a ceasefire. Not so Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, during which Russia has threatened nuclear use. Sometimes you can get caught up by your threats and increasingly feel that you must act if publicly humiliated or derided. China, India, and Pakistan continue to be at risk.

Climate instability? The military has long felt that climate change might influence war due to the economic repercussions, let alone the trigger-happy traumatic effect on the citizens and leaders. AI likely increases the risk via the ease of use and occasional misinterpretations, originally using the psychiatric term “hallucinations.”

Now, our country threatens to take over Greenland, the Panama Canal, Canada, and maybe Mexico. If any of that proceeds, it is hard to imagine other major powers sitting by idly. Fear-mongering does not lead to calmness.

The anxiety released by the announcement may reach our patients. That might especially be harmful to those who have paranoid ideation already.

Some in my field might say that we are in a “death spiral.” Freud long ago talked about humans having a death instinct, and he is starting to look more right than wrong here.

For all the above developments and reasons, it seems illogical to keep the clock at 90 seconds, but how far to move it? Make your guess now.

Well, how about an odd and unexpected time this time around? Might my age be as good as any other number, so how about 78 to midnight, or at least to my midnight?

Dr Moffic is an award-winning psychiatrist who specialized in the cultural and ethical aspects of psychiatry and is now in retirement and retirement as a private pro bono community psychiatrist. A prolific writer and speaker, he has done a weekday column titled “Psychiatric Views on the Daily News” and a weekly video, “Psychiatry & Society,” since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged. He was chosen to receive the 2024 Abraham Halpern Humanitarian Award from the American Association for Social Psychiatry. Previously, he received the Administrative Award in 2016 from the American Psychiatric Association, the one-time designation of being a Hero of Public Psychiatry from the Speaker of the Assembly of the APA in 2002, and the Exemplary Psychiatrist Award from the National Alliance for the Mentally Ill in 1991. He presented the third Rabbi Jeffrey B. Stiffman lecture at Congregation Shaare Emeth in St. Louis on Sunday, May 19, 2024. He is an advocate and activist for mental health issues related to climate instability, physician burnout, and xenophobia. He is now editing the final book in a 4-volume series on religions and psychiatry for Springer: Islamophobia, anti-Semitism, Christianity, and now The Eastern Religions, and Spirituality. He serves on the Editorial Board of Psychiatric Times.